Publications

Wollert, R. (2012, October 19). An introduction to the use of Bayes's Theorem in sex offender risk assessment and psychodiagnosis. Presented at the 2012 Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers.


Wollert, R. & Cramer, E. (forthcoming). The constant multiplier assumption misestimates long-term sex offender recidivism rates. Law and Human Behavior.


Wollert, R., & Cramer, E. (forthcoming). Sampling extreme groups invalidates research on the paraphilias: Implications for DSM-5 and sex offender risk assessment. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 29(4).


Wollert, R. (keynote lecture presented at the 2010 convention of the International Association for the Treatment of Sexual Offenders and colloquium presented at Simon Fraser University). Bayesian Reasoning Protects Against Confirmatory Biases in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.


Wollert, R., Cramer, E., Waggoner, J., Skelton, A., & Vess, J. (Sexual Abuse, in press). Recent research (N=9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments.


Wollert, R. (chair), Waggoner, J., Rypma, B., Rypma, C., & Caldwell, M. [symposium paper presented at the 2010 convention of the American Psychological Association (APA)]. Juvenile Offenders Are Ineligible for Civil Commitment as Sexual Predators.


Wollert, R. (chair), Waggoner, J., Rypma, B., Rypma, C., & Caldwell, M. [symposium Power Point presented at the 2010 convention of the American Psychological Association (APA)]. Juvenile Offenders Are Ineligible for Civil Commitment as Sexual Predators.


Wollert, R. & Waggoner, J. (2009). Bayesian computations protect sexually violent predator evaluations from the degrading effects of confirmatory bias and illusions of certainty: A reply to Doren and Levenson (2009). Sexual Offender Treatment, 4 (1), 1-26.


Waggoner, J., Wollert, R., & Cramer, E. (2008). A re-specification of Hanson's 2006 Static-99 experience table that controls for the effects of age in a sample of 552 young sex offenders. Law, Probability, and Risk, 7, 305-312.


Donaldson, T. & Wollert, R. (2008). A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk. Sexual Abuse, 20, 206-217.


Wollert, R. (August, 2007). Validation of a Bayesian Method for Assessing Sexual Recidivism Risk. Presented in San Francisco at the annual American Psychological Association conference.


Wollert, R. (2007). Poor diagnostic reliability, the Null-Bayes Logic Model, and their implications for sexually violent predator evaluations. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 13 (3), 167-203.


Wollert, R. (2006). Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarial tests are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's Theorem. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 12, 56-85.   


Wollert, R. W., Lytton, D., Waggoner, J,. & Goulet, M. (November, 2005).   Competent use of actuarial tests requires understanding sample-wise variations in both recidivism and test accuracy.   Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Association for the Treatment of Sex Abusers. Salt Lake City, UT.


Waggoner, J., & Wollert, R.W. (April, 2005).   Elimination of familial offenders inflated the estimated efficiency of the MnSOST-R.   Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Western Psychological Association, Portland, OR.


Wollert, R.W. (April, 2005).   An application of Bayes's Theorem to age-wise sexual recidivism rates.   Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Western Psychological Association, Portland, OR.


Wollert, R.W. (2003).   Additional flaws in the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised: A response to Doren and Dow.   Journal of Threat Assessment, 2 (4), 65-78.


Wollert, R.W. (2002).   The importance of cross-validation in actuarial test construction: Shrinkage in the risk estimates for the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised.   Journal of Threat Assessment, 2 (1), 87-102.


Wollert, R.W. (2001).   An analysis of the argument that clinicians under-predict sexual violence in civil commitment cases.
Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 18, 171-184.




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